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U.S. economic data, from the Fed

Snapshot as of September 28, 2026. Every card links to the full history on FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data, St. Louis Fed) or the source tool — free, no account needed.

Interest rates & Fed policy

Fed funds target range
3.75–4.00%
Raised Sept 16, 2026 — first hike since 2023. Effective rate: 3.88%.
Target range history on FRED →
Prime rate
7.00%
Effective Sept 17, 2026. Base rate for HELOCs, credit cards & business loans.
Prime rate history on FRED →
30-year mortgage (PMMS)
7.03%
Freddie Mac weekly average, week ending Sept 24, 2026.
History on FRED →
15-year mortgage (PMMS)
6.42%
Freddie Mac weekly average, week ending Sept 24, 2026.
History on FRED →
10-year Treasury yield
~5.17%
Sept 25, 2026 — highest since 2007. Fixed mortgage rates track this yield.
Yield history on FRED →
CME FedWatch — Oct hike odds
~66%
Market-implied odds of a 25bp October hike, Sept 25, 2026. Updates live.
Open the FedWatch tool →

Inflation

CPI — headline
3.4%
Year over year, August 2026. Gasoline (+3.9% MoM) drove over a third of the monthly rise.
CPI history on FRED →
CPI — core (ex food & energy)
2.4%
Year over year, August 2026 — down from 2.5% in July.
Core CPI history on FRED →
PCE — the Fed's gauge
3.7%
Year over year, July 2026. The Fed targets 2% PCE inflation.
PCE history on FRED →
PCE — core
3.3%
Year over year, July 2026. The Fed's preferred underlying-inflation measure.
Core PCE history on FRED →

Why two inflation gauges? The Fed targets PCE, which adapts faster to spending shifts. The Fed's own explainer on PCE inflation →

Houston metro

Local inflation for Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Local CPI is published every two months (not seasonally adjusted); the latest release was Sept 11, 2026, covering August.

Houston CPI — all items
1.3%
Year over year, Aug 2026 (index 282.338). Up 0.4% over the two months ending in August. Well below the national 3.4%.
Houston CPI history on FRED →
Houston CPI — core
−0.2%
All items less food & energy, year over year, Aug 2026. Local shelter fell 0.6% over the year.
BLS Houston CPI release →
Houston — energy & food
+17.2%
Energy index, year over year, Aug 2026 — the driver of local inflation. Food rose 2.2%.
BLS Houston CPI release →
Houston unemployment
5.0%
August 2026, not seasonally adjusted. Civilian labor force near 3.92 million.
Houston jobs history on FRED →

More Houston series: BLS economy at a glance — Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown →

Labor market

Unemployment rate
4.1%
August 2026, unchanged. The Fed calls this consistent with full employment.
History on FRED →
Nonfarm payrolls
+162,000
Jobs added in August 2026 (July revised up to +21,000).
Payrolls history on FRED →
Initial jobless claims
196,000
Week of Sept 12, 2026. Four-week average: 203,250 — layoffs remain rare.
Claims history on FRED →

Housing

Case-Shiller home price index
Index
S&P national home price index, monthly. Track whether home values are still climbing.
Home price history on FRED →
Mortgage rates vs. history
5-yr chart
Interactive 30-yr / 15-yr chart with 1Y, 3Y and 5Y ranges, built from Freddie Mac data.
Open the mortgage chart →

Growth & output

GDPNow — Q3 estimate
5.0%
Annualized real GDP, Atlanta Fed running estimate as of Sept 25, 2026. Next update Sept 30.
Open GDPNow →
Real GDP — Q2 2026
+1.5%
Annualized, second BEA estimate (Q1 was +2.1%). Official quarterly growth.
Real GDP history on FRED →
Atlanta Fed data lab
Tools
Wage tracker, market probability tracker, Taylor rule utility and more.
Browse Atlanta Fed data →

About this data

These are the series the Federal Reserve itself watches: the policy rate it sets, the inflation gauges it targets, the labor market in its dual mandate, and the growth estimates that shape its next move. Values above are a snapshot — each link opens the full history on FRED, where you can chart, compare and download the data free.

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (GDPNow), Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, CME Group FedWatch, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.